Political Methodology

Colonial Legacy and Foreign Aid: Decomposing the Colonial Bias
It is well-known that donors give considerably more foreign aid to former colonies than to countries lacking past colonial ties. …
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Colonial Legacy and Foreign Aid: Decomposing the Colonial Bias
The Shape of Things to Come? Expanding the Inequality and Grievance Model for Civil War Forecasts with Event Data
We examine if dynamic information from event data can help improve on a model attempting to forecast civil war using measures …
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The Shape of Things to Come? Expanding the Inequality and Grievance Model for Civil War Forecasts with Event Data
Every Story Has a Beginning, Middle, and an End (But Not Always in That Order): Predicting Duration Dynamics in a Unified Framework
There are three fundamental duration dynamics of civil conflicts: time until conflict onset, conflict duration, and time until conflict …
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Every Story Has a Beginning, Middle, and an End (But Not Always in That Order): Predicting Duration Dynamics in a Unified Framework
A Copula Approach to the Problem of Selection Bias in Models of Government Survival
Theories of coalition politics in parliamentary democracies have suggested that government formation and survival are jointly …
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A Copula Approach to the Problem of Selection Bias in Models of Government Survival
Major Powers and Militarized Conflict
This article attempts to answer the question of why major powers engage in more active foreign policy behaviors than minor powers. It …
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Major Powers and Militarized Conflict
Decomposing the Relationship Between Contiguity and Militarized Conflict
It is well known that the majority of militarized conflicts and wars have been fought by neighbors. Yet, much remains to be learned …
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Decomposing the Relationship Between Contiguity and Militarized Conflict