International Security

What Does it Mean to be a Reliable Ally?
The value of military alliances is closely tied to whether alliance members will uphold their commitment if the treaty is invoked. …
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What Does it Mean to be a Reliable Ally?
What Does it Mean to be a Reliable Ally?
Using updated historical data and alternative coding rules, we estimate that about two-thirds of war-invoked alliances were honored and one-third violated over the past two centuries.
Mar 1, 2026
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What Does it Mean to be a Reliable Ally?
Belief in Territorial Indivisibility and Public Preferences for Dispute Resolution
This study investigates how individuals may develop more or less strong beliefs in the indivisibility of a disputed territory and how …
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Belief in Territorial Indivisibility and Public Preferences for Dispute Resolution
Make Two Democracies and Call Me in the Morning: Endogenous Regime Type and the Democratic Peace
We employ an instrumental-variables approach to identify the causal effect of joint democracy on militarized conflict.
Apr 30, 2021
Make Two Democracies and Call Me in the Morning: Endogenous Regime Type and the Democratic Peace
Military Coalitions and Crisis Duration
Forming a military coalition during an international crisis can improve a state’s chances of achieving its political goals. We argue …
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Military Coalitions and Crisis Duration
The Shape of Things to Come? Expanding the Inequality and Grievance Model for Civil War Forecasts with Event Data
We examine if dynamic information from event data can help improve on a model attempting to forecast civil war using measures …
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The Shape of Things to Come? Expanding the Inequality and Grievance Model for Civil War Forecasts with Event Data
Careful Commitments: Democratic States and Alliance Design
Evidence suggests that leaders of democratic states experience high costs from violating past commitments. We argue that because …
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Careful Commitments: Democratic States and Alliance Design
Every Story Has a Beginning, Middle, and an End (But Not Always in That Order): Predicting Duration Dynamics in a Unified Framework
There are three fundamental duration dynamics of civil conflicts: time until conflict onset, conflict duration, and time until conflict …
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Every Story Has a Beginning, Middle, and an End (But Not Always in That Order): Predicting Duration Dynamics in a Unified Framework
Major Powers and Militarized Conflict
This article attempts to answer the question of why major powers engage in more active foreign policy behaviors than minor powers. It …
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Major Powers and Militarized Conflict
Institutional Opposition, Regime Accountability, and International Conflict
Can international organizations constrain a leader’s behavior during a military crisis? Existing studies have shown that joint …
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Institutional Opposition, Regime Accountability, and International Conflict