Conflict Forecast

Much Ado about Something: Predicting Interstate Crises Onset and Resolution over Contentious Issues

We explore whether dynamic information from event data can improve our ability to forecast the onset and termination of international crises. Studies of dyadic interstate conflicts have demonstrated that taking into account contentious issues between countries can improve on conventional models explaining dyadic violent conflict based on purely structural factors (e.

The Shape of Things to Come? Expanding the Inequality and Grievance Model for Civil War Forecasts with Event Data

We examine if dynamic information from event data can help improve on a model attempting to forecast civil war using measures reflecting plausible motivation and grievances. Buhaug, Cederman, and Gleditsch predict the risk of civil war using a …

Every Story Has a Beginning, Middle, and an End (But Not Always in That Order): Predicting Duration Dynamics in a Unified Framework

There are three fundamental duration dynamics of civil conflicts: time until conflict onset, conflict duration, and time until conflict recurrence. Theoretical and empirical models of war usually focus on one or at most two aspects of these three …