Conflict Forecast

The Shape of Things to Come? Expanding the Inequality and Grievance Model for Civil War Forecasts with Event Data
We examine if dynamic information from event data can help improve on a model attempting to forecast civil war using measures …
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Every Story Has a Beginning, Middle, and an End (But Not Always in That Order): Predicting Duration Dynamics in a Unified Framework
There are three fundamental duration dynamics of civil conflicts: time until conflict onset, conflict duration, and time until conflict …
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