Make Two Democracies and Call Me in the Morning: Endogenous Regime Type and the Democratic Peace

We employ an instrumental-variables approach to identify the causal effect of joint democracy on militarized conflict.

Much Ado about Something: Predicting Interstate Crises Onset and Resolution over Contentious Issues

We explore whether dynamic information from event data can improve our ability to forecast the onset and termination of international crises. Studies of dyadic interstate conflicts have demonstrated that taking into account contentious issues between countries can improve on conventional models explaining dyadic violent conflict based on purely structural factors (e.